Executor: Wawasan Poll
by zars
Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:07:40 EDT

Sponsored by Suara!, conducted by Wawasan, present polling shows:
Veren 22
Janssen 12
Undecided 12
Qiu  10
Zheng 9
Wahoo 9
Chud 7
Amwasser 4
Abe 4
Joe 3

Fully story is here (registration required).

Some analysis from our best election nerds:

Veren being 10 points ahead of Janssen is making our hearts soar. It's still scary to see Ms. Separatism being that high without even announcing yet, if the SIGMACRATS run Joe they might actually be able to destroy the planet (and this forum if it's Veren vs Joe ROFL)

Uneducated voters still don't understand that Qiu isn't running again, and you can probably count on Grandmother Budgethawk being so high just from being tied to him.

The UCPM selling our their already bad beliefs just to be tied with a senile pirate in polling is beautiful, no notes.

John CHUD Brigades and his bumpkin handler are something to watch out for, they might somehow manage to screw over humanity more than the SIGMACRATS already are. The saving grace in this is that Angry Abe is tied with the frontier fetishists, I guess setting up a survelliance state doesn't make you popular, huh?



Diaries :: moar political analysis :: Link & Discuss (102 comments)

Display:
Executor: Wawasan Poll | 121 comments (121 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Interesting (none / 0)

if not surprising. Most of these numbers can be chalked up to Veren announcing early with lots of endorsements. Don't get complacent, the second that the other side consolidates itself, we'll see a much closer race. The bit to watch in my opinion is the part of the Wawasan poll that wasn't posted, the general Assembly polling:


12% Democratic Union of Communists & Progressives
12% Democratic
11% Union
7% SIGMA
6% National
5% Frontiers
5% Curiosity
5% Conservative
4% Yarr!
4% Merriment Maturation
3% Dharma
2% Social Democratic Worker's
2% AKM - Martian Communist Worker's
2% Radicals, Free Thinkers, & Libertarians
2% Impreza di Marzo
2% P4
1% Heyudang
1% MPP
1% Martian Worker's and Dolphin's
1% Whigs
1% Democratic LaSangist People's
1% Order and Progress
I want all the DailyZars wonks in here to analyze the crazy crosstabs here. Personally, I can't seem to wrap my head around half of this LOL.
-Nellie

Never ever stop fighting for progress. Once you give up, the forces of reaction win and we get set back another 50 years. There's a future ahead of us, you must reach out and grasp it
by Nellie on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 15:39:09 EDT

Crosstabs (none / 0)

I concur on the crosstabs. Looking at the differences in the polls, we are seeing some scary split ticket voting ;-)

12% for the UCPM in the polls but only 9% for Wahoo himself means that 3% of them are voting for someone else. Are there UCPM - Janssen swing voters out there? I imagine these true soldiers of institutional liberalism and shudder in fear...

Martians cannot govern. - Justice Glorbina von Chudfeld.

by Wakka on Mon Jun 7th, 2004 at 15:56:37 EDT
[ Parent ]

Partially agreed on the UCPM (none / 1)

The thing about UCPM voters is that they are genuine SocDem institutionalists, but I've always found them to be older union types. Not sure about Janssen, my guess is that all of that 3% are the ones writing in Qiu haha...

-Nellie

Never ever stop fighting for progress. Once you give up, the forces of reaction win and we get set back another 50 years. There's a future ahead of us, you must reach out and grasp it

by Nellie on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 16:47:02 EDT
[ Parent ]

Old (none / 0)

Definitely agree on the older bit. My Grandpa has been a consistent UCPM supporter since before the Civil War and he doesn't show signs of stopping.
I tried to explain to him that Marxism is an old and outdated science once but he just started laughing and said "Well so am I!"
I had no idea how to respond so I just let him have that one.

by Bridges on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 17:21:36 EDT
[ Parent ]

Dude he owned you. (none / 0)

I think you legally have to start voting for the UCPM now. I'm sure that everyone on DailyZars would understand if you started knocking airlocks for Wahoo because how do you come back from that one LOL

Donate to the HSI Mapping Project
by Licorice on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:39:29 EDT
[ Parent ]

Qiu voters? (none / 1)

I agree with the rest of your analysis but do you really think that they're Qiu superfans? Keep in mind that Wyszynski had tactit support from UCPM splitters when she ran and that was a huge reason why she was able to give that big of a shock to Qiu.
If anything it's MUP voters that are still trying to vote for Qiu, he's more their type and they tend to be dumb conservatives anyways ROFL

by martha on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:25:09 EDT
[ Parent ]

Proof of possible Dharma Sweep? (none / 0)

You mentioning MUP voters got me thinking... is there that little support for Ronalds? He's below Koko Joe for humanity's sake and Joe isn't even a party leader.
I predict that the MUP support in the polls is a mirage and Ronalds is personally unpopular. He's spending so much time strutting around in his military uniform and making gaffes that voters will remember that they hate him.
Remember that the MUP wasn't even around during the election, they found Ronalds in some basement and made him leader out of nowhere, people will get a real opinion on him soon and it will not be good.
So where do these Unionist voters go in an MUP collapse? You tell me, but I think there's a pretty clear party for them to swap to...

by Vitruvian on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:45:38 EDT
[ Parent ]

Um... (none / 0)

The Conservatives, Curiosity, MMM, the Whigs, PMC, whatever Wilkington has going on, heck even the Democrats!
Look, I'm a Dharma fan too. But let's be realistic here. This is a pretty radical progressive party that's gonna be fighting an uphill battle in this next election. I did my fair share of crying when I saw the results come in but the truth is that most of the planet isn't ready for our message yet. That's what this forum is for, we need to get out what we believe in and let people know why progressing humanity is so important!
There's no need to wishcast, always expect the worst.

Martians cannot govern. - Justice Glorbina von Chudfeld.
by Wakka on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:50:41 EDT
[ Parent ]

Popular Labor Front (none / 0)

You're not only right on the 2248 parallel but I think all the wonks in this forum kinda understate its importance.

Just look at this electoral map: img-map
Pundits have been flipping out over this coalition for the last 2 years for a reason. It is incredibly electorally efficient
If the autonomist left got its act together they could get insane numbers against Veren. All I can say is stay vigilant if we don't want Speaker-Executor Janssen winning the election while losing the popular vote by 10 points.

Build the Sphere already!

by noodle on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:09:48 EDT
[ Parent ]

OMG (none / 0)

Wow that's really scary, I didn't even think about that...
I knew that it was gonna be an uphill battle to get Veren in office but I didn't expect it would be that bad. We need to kick ourselves into overdrive to not kick humanity back 50 years!
I just donated 20 wokes to the Veren campaign because we all need to come together for this fight.

by martha on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:09:48 EDT
[ Parent ]

Grand Deal (none / 0)

Remember that dumb electoral pact that a bunch of left parties made during the last election?
The DUCPM was part of is, Curiosity was too, and I think the Ba'athists were (remember them LOL). Oh and Dharma of course.
My point is that the media kept talking about how this held the DUCPM back in a bunch of districts that they would have won otherwise. This theory really reinforces that, we might be looking at a sweep for Lynda's Lefist Lapdogs.

Autonomists are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are autonomists. -anonymous
by Jamiroquai on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 22:04:32 EDT
[ Parent ]

Funnily enough, (none / 0)

Those same pundits made a point that the main party gaining from the UCPM's failure was AKM. So I guess we're gonna have to make a decision here as a movement...

...critical support to

...the outright separatist communists???
Hey look, you take the help you can get!

--- My opinions are my own and not my employer's.
by Werther on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 22:49:03 EDT
[ Parent ]

more widespread (none / 0)

I don't think that treating the Qiu deadenders as a partisan bloc is gonna get us anywhere. People of all affilations like the guy (besides the far left and also Butcher I guess?)
It's pretty clear to me that he should be treated as a slightly right-unionist leaning Undecided vote in the polls rn. The big thing here is the crazy polling for Grandmother Budgethawk compared to her party. I agree with OP that it's a similar situation of people seeing "vice executor" and going ZOMG QIU!1!!!1! without taking a look at all the welfare that she wants to make walk the plank.

Lyn Marcus Unionist... is this anything?
by seaprog on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:08:07 EDT
[ Parent ]

What's up with all these institutionalists anyways? (none / 0)

Like really. At least 60% of the planet is obsessed with keeping within the norms of a 2 week government 75 YEARS ago.
Um... What? It's why the Dems and the (D)UCPM did so well anyways, people see continuity with the last time the UN let us vote and just repeat the same mistake over and over and over again. I mean a government formed by the Dems, centrist Unionists, the UCPM, and wacky conservative autonomists (idk SIGMA is the best I can do for LAROUCHE hahaha)
Ever since the election I've felt like I was back in Martian History 101 and that is not a good feeling :')

Martians cannot govern. - Justice Glorbina von Chudfeld.
by Wakka on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 17:58:56 EDT
[ Parent ]

LOL TRUE (none / 0)

I mean history is cyclical if one does not take the initiative to move it forward. This just makes me wonder which Dem will declare themself Morte IV and try to set up their own empire
The obvious joke here is Lynda but I'd put 10 wokes on von Bahool... there's something about that guy

Autonomists are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are autonomists. -anonymous
by Jamiroquai on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 18:31:23 EDT
[ Parent ]

SIGMA and LAROUCHE (none / 0)

What do you mean, that's perfect. From what I heard, Abe was actually part of LAROUCHE before they banned it. That's why he has to take Roza Mira checks now! :P
Plus, former LAROUCHE guys all voted SIGMA for the Assembly where I lived. Maybe I should start saving up for a move to Earth if things end up the same way...

by JCICR on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:05:52 EDT
[ Parent ]

Heh (none / 0)

If the Conservatives are BEER in this analogue then I'm happy, my family stuffed ballots for Budweiser back in the day. Glad to be able to carry on their legacy of sensible unionist paternalism.

Ooh! Ooh! Duel me next, Ms. Zheng!
by Tsingtao on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:49:21 EDT
[ Parent ]

A clear trend here. (none / 0)

You're definitely correct about the institutionalism here, but I don't really think it's limited to the DUCPM. Honestly, most voters aren't looking for a shakeup right now, they just want whoever has the best chance of slowly making things better.
It's why I'm a bit worried about Veren being viewed as too radical, it's gonna make people on here annoyed but to get the median voter he needs to act as an apolitical Qiu successor.

Looking for voters in all the wrong bases: THE WILLIAM E. STRICKLAND STORY
by gato on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:32:49 EDT
[ Parent ]

Hopeful, but unrealistic (none / 0)

Mars just wants stability. That much is obvious just from this, people vote for continuity in governance. However, I do not believe that they will stick with our current government, as it has failed in a multitude of ways to safeguard Martian Capital.
I propose a theory that all of these undecided voters will shift to the true defenders of a stable economy: the fine Jasper Wilkington IV of course!
If the fine people of this forum had any sense in their heads, they would abandon this foolish radical progressivism and hope on the MISER TRAIN.

CHOO CHOO! That's the sound of the MISER TRAIN going past your habitat!
by BigHam on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:48:33 EDT
[ Parent ]

Astroturf (none / 1)

Where did these guys come from? I know we have an in-joke about Elysian bot farms running all of the Joeker accounts but I'm worried that the MISER support here is an actual artifical operation...
Maybe I'm being paranoid but this can't be that far out. Didn't someone here prove that VARFAL was funding that one E-Campaign against PEACE on MarsKus (shoutout to them for that by the way). It can't be too much of a leap to start with minor forums.

by Chertoe on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 19:59:45 EDT
[ Parent ]

DailyZars? (none / 0)

This place is WAY too niche for anyone to spend time on. Besides, who are they gonna gain? Like we joke that 70% of Dharma voters frequent DailyZars but this place does have a clear hard progressive unionist lean that isn't gonna go for Wilkington of all people.
Clearly just some troll, in their defense Wilkingmentum is very funny to spam in threads whenever they drag that guy out somewhere.

by flipperfan72 on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:44:52 EDT
[ Parent ]

oh go away (none / 0)

The wonk threads are the only escape from the political flamewars that this board always had going on because everyone is too much of a detached nerd to get angry.
PLEASE don't bring the arguments in here, the only debate I want to have is how to intepret polling numbers and voter blocs!

by martha on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:01:03 EDT
[ Parent ]

always detached? (none / 0)

IDK... there's been some crazy times in the wonk threads. Remember when that post-Cordongate poll came out that showed Dharma at 2% somehow?
Almost every post was someone spamming "DHARMADHARMADHARMADHARMADHARMA" or thanking the Mormons for suing us into the news.

by JamesB3 on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:10:20 EDT
[ Parent ]

mass psychosis (none / 0)

That was a mass psychosis moment caused by appearing in the polls for the first time since the campaign started. It was a one time thing, and I say that as someone who was spamming DHARMADHARMADHARMA lol

On that note, can you imagine how we would have felt then if we were consistently getting 2%+ in the polls like we are now? We've definitely calmed down since then because I think we would take the servers down.

by martha on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:16:10 EDT
[ Parent ]

true! (none / 0)

All of us having to watch boring parliamentary proceedings made us soft, I'm not even a Dharma guy myself but I'm proud of you guys for managing to become somewhat relevant just by constantly punching above your weight.
Abe namedropping you guys in an interview made me spit out my drink, I forgot you folks existed outside of this forum until the sitting Minister of the Interior started taking shots at you on live TV.

Looking for voters in all the wrong bases: THE WILLIAM E. STRICKLAND STORY
by gato on Sat Aug 18th, 2250 at 20:42:44 EDT
[ Parent ]
Executor: Wawasan Poll | 121 comments (121 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Menu
· Create account
· Home
· About
· Diaries
·
· FAQ

· Advertising
· Daily Kos Store

· dKosopedia
· Assembly Outlook
· Electoral Calculator
· Executor Outlook
· Legacy Daily Kos

Login
Make a new account
Username:
Password:

\ \ \


Daily Zars homepage
© 2250. Steal what you want. Powered by Scoop.